Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 3.639857 4.374288 5.194774 6.175802 7.313141 8.586340 10.115475
2025-03-16 2.582202 3.513549 4.665228 6.179383 8.101209 10.441321 13.486269
2025-03-23 1.922341 2.914277 4.252207 6.155905 8.756233 12.140215 16.824951
2025-03-30 1.411641 2.365512 3.758198 5.884351 8.980298 13.244446 19.462396
2025-04-06 1.119825 2.051903 3.510942 5.877577 9.514827 14.765973 22.755265
2025-04-13 0.896520 1.787641 3.276253 5.828703 9.946901 16.145894 25.934631
2025-04-20 0.790073 1.693923 3.289307 6.154414 10.965325 18.456419 30.643760
2025-04-27 0.685624 1.578166 3.239837 6.358620 11.795963 20.533508 35.145291
2025-05-04 0.612901 1.506319 3.252514 6.662749 12.810216 22.966808 40.364713
2025-05-11 0.514306 1.357437 3.093881 6.631149 13.235153 24.465203 44.184497
2025-05-18 0.413391 1.177772 2.841724 6.383898 13.240588 25.248743 46.870269
2025-05-25 0.327792 1.010544 2.583070 6.081863 13.101772 25.756217 49.105088
2025-06-01 0.277586 0.919959 2.477016 6.080818 13.543846 27.341336 53.344996
2025-06-08 0.236967 0.843653 2.389526 6.106378 14.039703 29.061925 57.944477
2025-06-15 0.200640 0.768538 2.290356 6.090887 14.448152 30.647818 62.403976
2025-06-22 0.158958 0.662965 2.093937 5.824448 14.306016 31.179309 64.970825
2025-06-29 0.135257 0.607153 2.014581 5.818658 14.710879 32.784404 69.619715
2025-07-06 0.113855 0.551443 1.923781 5.770531 15.015099 34.208099 74.006495
2025-07-13 0.106937 0.547149 1.978090 6.093558 16.177697 37.425537 82.015139
2025-07-20 0.097122 0.528150 1.985528 6.296064 17.082193 40.173489 89.256909
2025-07-27 0.090743 0.521195 2.028419 6.597628 18.242704 43.520020 97.850063
2025-08-03 0.077499 0.479128 1.952430 6.566301 18.610895 45.230167 103.273819
2025-08-10 0.062228 0.420232 1.807768 6.321150 18.435427 45.768459 106.357753